Recent Economic Releases:
None for this week’s post.
Credit Market Indicators:
Real and Nominal Yield Curves YTD change – Treasury Yield Curve
The nominal treasury yield curve continues to flatten out as the market closed on Friday with treasury yielding 2.46%.
Source: US Department of the Treasury
Current Shiller CAPE Ratio:
Currently at a ratio of 26.49, CAPE is 59% higher than its historic mean of 16.6. The “takeaway” is that while this is not a timing indicator, the current level is well above historic mean values and when this valuation measure is this high, historically, the annual future returns have been very low.
Closing on Friday at 12.09, the VIX appears to be complacent, compared to being as high as 17 in late July through early August. The inference is that this continues to be a market that can be carefully invested in.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Relative to a general trend, momentum is currently positive.*